Some Say in Ice

I look out into the smoky gloom hovering over the d'Entrecasteaux Channel. Black swans have gathered in front of the property I am staying at, because of course they have. The property itself is in a place called Gordon. Even at times like this, it seems the universe likes to wink. (Or it could just be the smoke in its eye?)

James flew back to the mainland yesterday to return to work -I mean why let the fire burn down his career as well?- so I have moved my obsessive little bushfire media centre to a friend's place instead of paying for accommodation every night for an indeterminate period of time. Seems only fitting I get to do my Bridge of Khazad Dum thing solo. The bridge is single file, as you recall.

Maybe not that indeterminate a period of time. D-Day has arrived. You ever wondered what a 33,000 hectare bushfire looks like when depicted as a series of little dots? It looks like this:

Note that northwest/southeast channel of clear? I actually fancy I see all of your magic in that.

Anyway, I figured it was time for an update as this afternoon the fire broke out of the forest into fields and settled areas north of us. Specifically here, at Braeside Road in Castle Forbes Bay. Out of its 300km front it chose there.

Why do I mention the road when basically none of you reading this live in the area? Because that't the exact road we almost bought when looking for properties in the valley in 2017. So I'm in Gordon and the fire breaks out where Gordon literally almost lived. This is a balrog with a vendetta, it seems.

Anyway, as you can see in the above image or the map below, that's hella close. The winds tomorrow are expected to be extremely strong from the northwest, then hopefully  southwest by the end of the day. If you are playing along with your magical target practice, target the wind. There is no rain left. A southerly or sou'easter may push the fire back on itself and will also give the fire crews an opportunity to use aircraft again, as they currently can't see anything for all the smoke.

But we have some exciting conditions between now and then. Here are some choice quotes from the Tasmanian Fire Services in their most recent emergency broadcast:

• “Fire conditions tomorrow are going to be even worse than they are today.”
• “Port Huon and Geeveston are going to be right in the path of this fire tomorrow afternoon.”

They're that bad that the fire service is telling people that it will likely be too dangerous for fire crews in a worst-case-scenario.

Below are some recent images from twitter accounts you may want to follow if you fancy rubbernecking a 150 fire event? (I mean how often to they happen? It's impossible to tell.) There is also a Huon Valley Council emergency briefing for residents on the extent of the fire from 12:30pm today if you're really bored. Just listen to the firefighter at the beginning. The rest is all about road closures and things. But a 33,000 hectare fire is kinda interesting. Note there's another one in ninety minutes which will have more up-to-date info, depending on when you read this. It'll be on the HVC Facebook video page.

We’re with @TasFireService just off Arve Road about 15km from the Tahune Airwalk - which has sadly been destroyed by fire. Fire crews are trying to stop the blaze jumping this road and heading down to Costains Rd Geeveston. #tasfires @abchobart pic.twitter.com/J2igBt6JqB

— Rhiana Whitson (@rhianawhitson) January 29, 2019

Spot fire on Arve Road near Geeveston attended to by DPIWE and New Zealand firefighters. ⁦@themercurycomau⁩ ⁦@themercuryphoto⁩ #tasfires pic.twitter.com/WYjl7vHuoT

— Nikki Davis-Jones (@davisjonesn) January 28, 2019

Great Pine Tier, Central Plateau #Tasmania 11:18am Mon 29 Jan
The Terra satellite has just downloaded the latest hotspots and the bright red ones are new sightings. Accuracy ~1sqkm#Tasfires pic.twitter.com/lHqD2PVILx

— Incid Alert- Sth Tas (@IncidentAlertTS) January 29, 2019

The Tasmania Fire Service has released new images of the fire damage at the Tahune Airwalk.

For full warnings: https://t.co/n2LKveMdDT
Listen to ABC Hobart 936 AM, online via https://t.co/tLd1xnDGif or on the ABC Listen app.

Tasmania Fire Service pic.twitter.com/5SiNTcDe8b

— ABC Hobart (@abchobart) January 29, 2019

Once again, I want to point out that everyone is safe. James is on a whole other island. The area I'm in is quite close but doesn't even have an alert status -that will come tomorrow when spot fires jump the Huon River. Avalon and the kids are well north of Hobart. Well, everyone was safe except Avalon's husband, who is genuinely lovely but became a volunteer firefighter all of 1.5 days ago and raced back down to the valley to put all that extensive experience to work, against the expressed and loudly articulated wishes of his Brazilian witch wife.

Who then performed a road closure enchantment on him as he drove out of Hobart. He's been stopped at the Huonville bridge by the police for an hour, while many other cars are being let through on fire business. He calls Avalon to convey his bewilderment as to why he specifically is not being let through. She tells him: "Bring back dinner."

Magic works. If you have any spare, we sure could use it.